来历：证券商场红周刊
美东时刻4月30日，yahoo财经持续更新yahoo财经总修改安迪·塞尔沃（Andy Serwer）于3月10日专访巴菲特的视频内容。《红周刊》进行了文字收拾，等待能协助到读者朋友。
内容摘要：
富国银行正阅历许多企业都会阅历的进程，作为企业担任人发现过错要及时、高效的处理。
超低利率乃至负利率不会让我感到惧怕，但会让我感到困惑。
未来伯克希尔会有几十亿或许难以精确计数的资金将用于出资疫苗或许教育职业。
找到一个适宜的CEO并为其或许发生的作业做好预备是董事会的终究职责。
每天做能让自己高兴的作业能够对“健康长寿”起到很大效果。
不会出资特斯拉，让电动车代替燃油车或许会阻挠经济开展。
蒂姆·库克十分耐心肠花了几个小时，企图把我（运用手机的水平）提升到两岁孩提的均匀水平，但我没能成功。
FAANG公司，除了Netflix需求资金其他都不需求许多本钱投入，我不以为它们股价呈现了显着的泡沫。
以下为此次专访实录及中文编译：
ANDY SERWER：Hello， everyone. I'm Andy Serwer. Welcome to “Influencers”and welcome to our very special guest， Warren Buffett， Chairman andCEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Warren， nice to see you.
安迪·塞尔沃：咱们好， 我是安迪·塞尔沃。欢迎来到《首领》，欢迎咱们的特邀嘉宾，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。沃伦，很高兴见到你。
WARREN BUFFETT：Good to see you.
沃伦·巴菲特：很高兴见到你。
3月份以来的美股暴降
没有2008年或1987年那么糟糕
ANDY SERWER:So it's March 10, and it's the day after the stockmarket crash. The Dow was down over 2000 points. Oil cratered to $30 a barrelor so. The 10-year bond went to below 0.5％. What the heck is going on， WarrenBuffett？
安迪·塞尔沃：今日是3月10日，股市崩盘的第二天，道琼斯指数跌落超越2000点，油价跌至每桶30美元左右，10年期国债跌至0.5％以下，终究发生了什么，沃伦·巴菲特？
WARREN BUFFETT:I told you many years ago， if you stickaround long enough， you'll see everything in markets. And it may have taken meto 89 years of age to throw this one into the experience. But markets， if youhave to be open second by second， they react to news in a big time way. It'snot like the market for real estate or farms or things of that sort.
沃伦·巴菲特:许多年前我就告知过你，假如你在商场上呆的时刻满足长，您什么作业都会遇到。但现在这个局面也是我活了89岁第一次遇到。但商场便是如此，新闻每时每刻都在影响着股价，并且商场对新闻的反响很大。我的意思是，它不像房地产或农场之类的商场。
ANDY SERWER:Does this remind you of any other time？
安迪·塞尔沃：这次暴降有没有让您想起以往哪些阅历？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I've certainly been a fair number of timeswhen panic has reigned in Wall Street. And October 19, 1987 and the periodaround it，there was panic at the close of business on Monday， October 19, mostof the specialist firms， which were important in those days on the New YorkStock Exchange， were broke. And the next morning， there was a check to theclearinghouse in Chicago that didn't get there.
沃伦·巴菲特：我在华尔街的确阅历过许屡次这种相似的景象。1987年10月19日“黑色星期一”，呈现了惊惧，大多数其时在纽约证券买卖所很重要的专业公司都破产了。第二天早上，给到芝加哥清算所的支票都没有完结。
And sometime late in the morning，a decision， I think made thedecision， we're going to stay open. But it was really close. That was， and， ofcourse， the financial panic. There were， you had 35 million people on September1 that weren't worried at all about their money market accounts. On September15 or 16, they were all.
在早上晚些时分，（买卖所做了）一个决议：咱们将持续开市。但它真的很挨近金融惊惧。其他还有（一次），有3500万人在9月1日还根本不忧虑他们的货币商场账户，到了9月15日-16日，（账户资金）悉数消失了。
疫情不会阻挠美国或国际的行进
ANDY SERWER:How concerned are you about the coronavirus situation，Warren？
安迪·塞尔沃：沃伦，你是否会忧虑新冠肺炎病毒？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you've got to defer to the doctors onthat. But you get an all these figures about flu regularly kills 20 times asmany people in this country as， or 40 times maybe as much as we've seen in theway of deaths， even more than that. But it is a pandemic. It is really spread.So we've got something that we don't know how long it will be with us. We don'tknow how severe it'll be. But there will be uncertainty about that for aconsiderable period of time. There has to be.
沃伦·巴菲特：这方面有必要听医师的定见。咱们从以往数据中能够看到，流感病毒导致的逝世率是国家正常逝世率的20倍乃至40倍，乃至更多。但这是一种流行病，它契合咱们对流行病的界说。但现在没有人知道它将持续多久，或许延伸分散的规划有多大。但在适当长的一段时刻内，这方面仍将存在不确定性。
ANDY SERWER: What precautions are you taking personally？Have you changed any of your habits？
安迪·塞尔沃：您个人采纳了什么预防措施了吗？或许为此改动了自己的哪些习气？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I'm drinking a little more Coca-Colaactually. Seems to have warded off everything else in life.I'm 89. I just hadtwo different doctors tell me how I'm in much better shape than I was a fewyears ago. I'm not sure what I'm doing to get better. But by accident， I had anannual heart check where I wear something around my waist for a couple days.The guy said it's never been better. So I really， I'm the probabilities guy inmy nature. So I， there's going to be to 2.8 million deaths this year. At age89, I'm a little more likely than I was in that group.
沃伦·巴菲特：实际上，我（仅仅）多喝了一点可口可乐。这好像能够防止日子中的全部问题。我现已89岁了，我仅仅需求不同的医师告知我，我现在的身体情况好多了。我不确定怎样来让身体更健康，但出人意料的是，我在每年的心脏查看中，那段时刻我需求把一些仪器在我的腰上挂几天。体检数据显现，我的身体历来没有这么好过。我是天然生成的概率论者。本年将有280万人逝世。在89岁的时分，我比从前更有或许（归于这类人）了。
But 2.8 million， what we had so far，it will grow. But I've alwaysfelt a pandemic would happen in some time. I've actually used that term indescribing things that can interrupt the progress of not only this country， butthe world. It won't stop the progress of the country or the world.this is aterrible event that's occurring. We don't know how terrible. It may not turnout to be that big a deal when we get through， but it may turn out to be a verybig deal， and we just don't know. And I certainly don't know. And nobody knows.
可是280万逝世人数是现在的，它还会增加。但我总觉得大流行病迟早会发生。我的确用过这个词来描绘那些不只会阻挠这个国家行进，并且会阻挠整个国际行进的作业。但（此次疫情）它不会阻挠国家或国际的行进。我的意思是，这是一个正在发生的可怕的作业。但咱们不知道它有多可怕。当咱们度过难关的时分，它或许就不会变成一件大事，但它存在变成一件大事的或许，仅仅咱们还不知道罢了。我当然不知道，并且也没人知道。
But there will be other things that happen in the world in thenext five， 10, 20 years. That's the way the world works. It's not a totallyeven course. The progress of mankind has been incredible. And that won't stop. Youflew out here yesterday or today and you flew over a country that 250 yearsago， there wasn't anything here. That's only three of my lifetimes. And therewasn't anything here. And now you've got all these beautiful farms and you'vegot 260 million vehicles in the country. And you've got 80 million owneroccupied homes and and you've got 155 million or whatever it is million peopleworking.It's incredible.
但在未来5年，10年，20年，国际上还会发生其他作业。国际便是这样作业的。这并不是一个彻底公正的进程。人类的行进是难以幻想的，人们行进的脚步不会中止。我的意思是，你昨日或今日飞到这儿，你飞到一个250年前这儿什么都没有的国家。在我祖上三辈的时分，这儿什么都没有。现在这儿有这么多美丽的农场，全国有2亿6千万辆车。8000万人具有自己的房子，1.55亿人在作业。这太难以幻想了。
When I had a medical check the other day， I went to incrediblemedical facilities that are just two or three minutes from here. And thatwasn't here wasn't even here 100 years ago. So we keep making progress.
你知道，那天我做了一次体检，我去了离这儿只需两三分钟旅程的医疗机构。250前年这儿必定是没有的，乃至100年前也是没有的。所以咱们一直在行进。
We haven't forgotten howto make progress in this country. And we haven't lost interest in makingprogress. And that will benefit to varying degrees， all kinds of people equallyaround the world. But there will be interruptions. And I don't know when theywill occur， and I don't know how deep they will occur. I do know they willoccur from time to time. And I also know all that we'll come out better on theother end.
咱们没有遗忘这个国家是怎样获得行进的，咱们依然对获得行进爱好高涨，这将在不同程度上对全国际全部人都有优点。但也会有中止，尽管我不知道这种情况什么时分会到来，我也不知道会开展到什么程度，我只知道这种情况会不时发生。我也知道，假如咱们开展进程不被打断，全部都会更好。
富国银行正阅历许多企业都会阅历的进程
作为企业担任人发现过错要及时、高效的处理
ANDY SERWER:And then what about the banks？ And they have been hitawfully hard.
安迪·塞尔沃：你对银行怎样看？它们（股价）遭到了严峻的冲击。
WARREN BUFFETT:They got hammered. Yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，它们（银行）遭受了重创。
ANDY SERWER:Because of rates and exposure to the energysector. Right？
安迪·塞尔沃：由于利率和动力部分的危险敞口。对吧？
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. And you don't know what other exposurethere is.The credit standards have been pretty darn good. And the quality ofwhat's on the books has been terrific， and the liquidity， and all of that. Thebanks are in a whole different situation than they were during the 10 or 11years ago. But there was you don't know the dominos that topple when airlinesget bad. And then that affects energy demand， because they're just they'reusing less fuel than they were three weeks ago.
沃伦 巴菲特：是的。不知道还有什么其他的危险。信誉规范现已适当不错了。账面上的财物质量很好，流动性也很好，等等。银行现在的情况与10年前或许11年前彻底不同。可是，当航空公司陷入困境的时分，不清楚多米诺骨牌是否会倒下。（疫情）影响了动力需求，由于它们（航空公司）比三周前用的燃料少了。
So there's ripple effects.And there always will be in recessions. That's the nature of recessions， is youget ripple effects. We get ripple effects on the railroad. but there's justthere's less intermodal traffic moving now because of the supply chaininterruptions and all that sort of thing. But that's you look at， again， in1942 when I bought my stock. The Philippines were about to fall.
这便是连锁反响。并且总会有阑珊，阑珊的实质便是连锁反响发生了。咱们看到铁路范畴现已遭到连锁反响（影响），仅仅由于供应链中止之类的原因，现在的多式联运运送削减了。可是，你再看一下，在1942年，我其时买股票的时分——菲律宾行将沦亡。
[LAUGHS] and the day I bought it， the Dow literally was down 2％.And 2％， that was only two points， literally. It broke 100 on the downside.[LAUGHS] But 2％， I felt it.I went to school in the morning and I bought thesethree shares. And when I came home at night， I already had a loss in them.[LAUGHS]
我是说（笑），我买的那天，道琼斯指数真的跌落了2％，2％仅仅是两个百分点，（那感觉就像）跌落了100点（笑）。便是那2％（的跌落），我形象深入。我早上去校园时买了这三只股票，当我晚上回家的时分，我现已失去了它们（笑）。
ANDY SERWER:Yeah. Well， I'm glad you kept with it.Because other people might have been discouraged.
安迪·塞尔沃：我很高兴看到你坚持下来了，由于其他人很或许会泄气。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. But，all the other kids in the 7thgrade had their money in something else. [LAUGHS]
沃伦 巴菲特：是的。我的意思是，其他七年级的孩子都把钱花在其他当地了。（笑）
ANDY SERWER:Right. Getting back to banks for just onesecond， Warren.
安迪·塞尔沃：没错，沃伦，让咱们先回到银行。
WARREN BUFFETT:Sure.
沃伦 巴菲特：好的。
ANDY SERWER:Are you getting frustrated with Wells Fargo？
安迪·塞尔沃：你对富国银行感到绝望了吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I think they've been through a lot ofproblems. But I don't think that the fundamental franchise and all of that，I'mfine with that. They I forget whether it's in one out of every threehouseholds in the country，they are the mortgage servicer.That's huge. It went throughsomething that various other companies GEICO， in the early '70s， got hadits troubles. American Express， in 1964 when we got into it， it had the saladoil scandal， which everybody's forgotten about. But it was a terrifying eventthen.
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯，我以为它们现已阅历了许多问题。但这并不意味着，我对根本的特许运营和全部这些都很满足。我遗忘了美国是不是每三个家庭中就有一个是典当借款服务者。这是数量是巨大的。富国银行正阅历一些其他公司遭受的作业，例如1970s的GEICO也遭受了费事，1964年的美国运通——其时发生了色拉油丑闻（现在咱们都忘了这件事），这些在其时都是十分可怕的作业。
So something will happen at some point [LAUGHS]. You can't run aplace with 395,000 people and not know that something that's happening all thetime. And you just hope you catch it fast. And the moral of the Wells Fargostory is when you hear about something， you've got act fact. And you can haveincentives out there that are incentivizing the wrong thing. And we've hadthem. Everybody's had them.
许多作业都会在某个时刻发生（笑）。你不能办理着一个有39.5万人口的当地，却不知道一直在发生的作业，你会期望自己能快点捉住要点。富国银行的故事告知咱们，当你听到某件事时，你现已有了现实的举动的。你或许从它那里得到了鼓励，警觉过错作业的发生。咱们有过这种阅历，每个人都有这种阅历。
Anybody that has a sales force makes mistakes sometimes in whatthey incentivize. And bad practices will spread if not jumped on. And that'swhat，you saw at Wells. I don't see how in the world they made any money out ofthe phony accounts [LAUGHS]. But，the cost again， there's a ripple effect.
我的意思是，任何有出售团队的人有时都会在他们鼓励的作业上犯过错。并且，假如不当即采纳举动，欠好的做法将会延伸。这便是你在威尔斯看到的。我看不出他们终究是怎样从假账户中赚到钱的（笑）。可是，本钱也有连锁反响。
When something goes wrong at Berkshire， if it doesn't getcorrected there'll be more problems subsequently. And when I was a Salomon，Charlie gave me the form. He said， get it right， get it fast， get it out， getit over. And any time you see a problem， and you're a responsible partly incorporate America， that means just get it right， get it fast， get it out， getit over. And- don't skip [LAUGHS]And just put that right in front of you and goto work on it.
当伯克希尔公司呈现问题时，假如不能得到纠正，接下来就会呈现更多的问题。当我还在所罗门的时分，查理给了我一张表格。他说，精确、高效地把问题找出来并处理掉。假如你是美国一家企业的担任人，任何时分你看到一个问题，那就意味着你要正确、高效地把问题找出来并处理掉。记住不要跳过它们（笑）。把它放在你面前，那就处理掉它。
ANDY SERWER:OK. Fair enough. Let's switch over and talk aboutoil. You are an investor in the sector through this Occidental Petroleum deal
安迪·塞尔沃：好的，那咱们换个论题，谈谈石油吧。你出资过西方石油公司，你是这个范畴的出资者。
WARREN BUFFETT:Right.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的
长时刻不用过火忧虑需求下降
石油公司仍是出资的好当地
ANDY SERWER:From last year. You put in $10 billion
安迪·塞尔沃：从上一年开端你投入了100亿美元。
WARREN BUFFETT:Exactly.
沃伦·巴菲特:没错。
ANDY SERWER:And maybe some more after that. I know you getpreferred dividends. But that investment has to be under water at this point.And what's your thinking？
安迪·塞尔沃：后续你或许会（在西方石油公司上）有更多的出资。我知道你会得到优先股息。但这些出资有必要是暗里进行的。你是怎样想的？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， that the $10 billion is a preferredstock with warrants. And there is nomarket in it.
沃伦·巴菲特:这100亿美元是有认股权证的优先股。但不受商场影响。
ANDY SERWER:OK.
安迪·塞尔沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:It's a private deal. But we also have about 2％ ofthe common stock. And that's down significantly. And as I said when I didit，the biggest variable is the price of oil. And I don't know the price of oil.And every day it gets quoted. If you have an opinion on oil， you can buy orsell oil either one year out or two years out or three years out or something ofthe sort.
沃伦·巴菲特:这是一笔私家买卖，可是咱们也有2％的普通股。这部分出资收益是明显下降的。我在做这笔出资的时分，最大的变量便是石油的价格，我无法猜测石油价格每天的涨跌和改动。但假如你对石油有自己的观点，你能够持有石油公司一年、两年、三年等等。
And when oil was in the 30s， there was a lot of agony in the oilpatch. And the math just changes terrifically.It just doesn't pay to drill in alot of areas. And the Saudis can turn out a lot， but with practically nooperating costs or， they get very， very， very cheap operations.
在1930s的时分，石油职业备受折磨，石油价格改动十分大。在许多当地钻探并不合算。沙特阿拉伯能够出产许多石油，但这些石油的出产简直不需求运营本钱，运营本钱十分十分低。
ANDY SERWER:Between that war between the Saudis and the Russians，and then also perhaps the secular decline of demand given concerns aboutclimate change， is this really a great place to invest？
安迪·塞尔沃：在沙特和俄罗斯之间的战役，以及考虑到气候改动带来的长时刻需求下降，（石油公司）这真是一个出资的好当地吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I don't think the secular demand will changethat much. But， certainly， the immediate demand has changed. The airlines needless. And people drive less if they're working out of their homes. And you canchange when you're talking aboutsomething close to 100 million barrels a day， if you change it by 5％，that ishuge.
沃伦·巴菲特:我以为长时刻需求不会有太大改动。但能够必定的是，其时的需求现已发生了改动。航空公司需求削减。假如人们在外作业，开车的次数也会削减。这也能够改动，假定其时每天石油产值挨近1亿桶，假如改动5％，那也将是很大的。
可代替动力契合未来开展方向
ANDY SERWER:I was reading in your annual letter， on the otherhand， that you're so proud of Berkshire Hathaway Energy， which is so big inwind power and has this whole different business model. So you think thatalternatives actually have a real future？
安迪·塞尔沃：其他，我在你写给的《致股东的信》中看到，你为伯克希尔·哈撒韦动力公司感到十分骄傲，它在风能范畴十分强壮，并且有着彻底不同的商业模式。所以你以为可代替动力真的有未来吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:Oh， alternatives have a future， and they arethe future， over time. But you can't change the base of the world. You've got260 million vehicles on the road， or whatever number it is in the UnitedStates， and I don't know how many around the world. And they're not changingwhat they use tomorrow [LAUGHS] .And the average age of the American vehicle，the auto， I think is 11 to 12 years， something like that.
沃伦 巴菲特:哦，可代替动力是有远景的，跟着时刻的推移，它们就将是动力职业的未来。你不或许改动这个国际的运转根底，美国大概有2亿6千万辆车在路上——或许是其他数字，我不知道国际上有多少辆车在路上。他们不会改动明日运用的东西（笑）。你知道，美国轿车的均匀运用年纪，差不多11年~12年。
And so the world can't change dramatically. And if anybody thinksyou can change energy sources 10％ at a year， it just doesn't work that way.Butthe world is going in the right direction in terms of working towardminimization of carbon.
所以国际不或许发生天翻地覆的改动。假如有人以为你能够每年改动10％的动力，那是行不通的。可是国际正在朝着正确的方向行进——尽力削减碳排放。
不会出资特斯拉
让电动车代替燃油车或许会阻挠经济开展
ANDY SERWER:Speaking of those cars，look at Tesla andwhat Elon Musk is doing.That kind of is a revolution. Right？
安迪·塞尔沃：谈到车，咱们看下特斯拉和埃隆·马斯克正在做什么吧。这是一场革新。对吧？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， it's an important change. But if youguessed on the penetration of electric cars let's say we， sell 17 million orsomething year in 2030, when I'll be 100 years old. I'd be surprised if morethan a third of those would be electric.That's 2/3 of that cars plus all theones in the total vehicles on the road， it still might be 10％ electric orsomething like that， worldwide.
沃伦·巴菲特:这是一个重要的改动。可是假如你猜电动轿车的遍及程度，假定咱们在2030年出售1700万辆左右，那时我将100岁。假如其间超越三分之一是电动的，我会很惊奇。或许的情况是，全国际占比2/3以上的车会是轿车，剩余的是约10％的电动轿车，以及其他动力轿车。
you can't change this mass of transportation. You can't change itin a year or two. It is changing， and it should change. But in terms of justthe math of replacing it if we said we're going to junk all the cars we have，the economy would stop. we can't producethat. We couldn't replace it.
你不或许在一两年内改动交通方法。是的，交通方法正在改动，也应该改动，可是就替换它的数学问题来说——假如咱们说咱们要丢掉咱们全部的轿车，经济就会停摆。因而咱们不能（中止）出产它们（传统燃油轿车），咱们也做不到替换它。
ANDY SERWER:What do you think of Elon Musk， though？ Haveyou met him？ And would you invest in Tesla？
安迪·塞尔沃：你怎样看埃隆·马斯克？你见过他吗？你会出资特斯拉吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:[LAUGHS] Well， I think you're trying to baitme a little bit.
沃伦·巴菲特:（笑）嗯，我觉得你是想让我上钩。
ANDY SERWER:I'm just asking you. You can say no， no， andno or yes， yes， and yes.
安迪·塞尔沃：（笑）我仅仅问你。你能够说“不"，或“是”。
WARREN BUFFETT:No， listen， he's done some remarkablethings.
沃伦·巴菲特:不，听着，他做了一些了不得的作业。
ANDY SERWER:Have you met him？
安迪·塞尔沃：你见过他？
WARREN BUFFETT:Oh， yeah. He's joined The Giving Pledge someyears ago. That I've only met him once or twice. But， yeah， I've talked with him， but not for quite awhile.
沃伦·巴菲特:哦，是的。他几年前加入了“捐献誓词”，我只见过他一两次。是的，不久之前咱们会过面。
ANDY SERWER:And would you invest in Tesla？
安迪·塞尔沃：你会出资特斯拉吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:No.
沃伦·巴菲特:不会。
负利率让我感到困惑
这将下降股票出资最低预期报答率
ANDY SERWER:OK. Let's switch over and talk about bondyields and interest rates. Because that's a crazy subject right now.
安迪·塞尔沃：好的。让咱们来讨论一下债券收益率和利率。这是一个张狂的论题。
WARREN BUFFETT:It is really crazy.
沃伦·巴菲特:这的确很张狂。
ANDY SERWER:Yeah. So what is your thinking on that？
安迪·塞尔沃：是的，那你怎样看？
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know [LAUGHS]. I have never beenable to predict interest rates， and I've never tried. Charlie and I， we believein trying to function on what，or to focus on what's knowable and important. Now interest rates areimportant， but we don't think they're knowable. And there are some things thatare it just gets back to something who was it？ Don Rumsfeld or something[LAUGHS]
沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道（笑）。我历来不去猜测利率，也历来没试过。查理和我，咱们信赖测验着去做什么，或许专心于什么是可知的和重要的。利率很重要，但咱们不以为它是可知的。有些作业是——它仅仅回到常识——谁能猜测得准？唐·拉姆斯菲尔德（名言：不知道自己不知道）？（笑）
ANDYSERWER:Knowns knowns and unknown knows and unknown unknowns.
安迪·塞尔：知之为知之，不知为不知。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah， and all that.And the question is thebox that says knowns and important。
沃伦·巴菲特:是的，彻底正确。问题是同一个盒子上，或许一同写着“可知”和“重要”。
WARREN BUFFETT:Is there anything in that box？ And can youtell what's in that box and what isn't in that box？ And that's what I callknowing your circle of competence. And my circle of competence doesn't includethe ability to predict interest rates a day from now or a year from now or fiveyears from now. So I say， can I function without knowing that？ It's the sameway as predicting what business is going to do or the stock market's going todo. I can't do any of those things. But that doesn't mean I can't do wellinvesting over time.
沃伦·巴菲特:盒子里有什么东西吗？你能说出那个盒子里有什么，没有什么吗？这便是我所说的了解你的才能圈。我的才能规模不包含猜测一天今后，一年今后，五年今后的利率的才能。所以我能在不知道这些的（要素的）情况下作业吗？这和猜测股市走势是相同的。我不能做这些事。但这并不意味着我不能长时刻做好出资。
ANDY SERWER:Things have changed. They're different nowbecause rates are so low.And you have negative rates.
安迪·塞尔：作业现已改动了。它们现在不同了，由于利率很低。乃至还有负利率。
WARREN BUFFETT:It's unbelievable.
沃伦·巴菲特:这难以置信。
ANDY SERWER:And then you were talking about EdgarLaurence Smith and his discovery about bonds versus retained earnings. And thenI think you were saying that it makes for as far as central banks， it makesno sense to lend at 1.4％ and then to have 2％ inflation.
安迪·塞尔：你谈到了埃德加·劳伦斯·史密斯和他关于债券与留存收益的发现。我记住你说过，关于央行来说，以1.4％的利率放贷，2％的通胀率是没有含义的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， it doesn't make sense for you to buy bondsif somebody is telling you that they're going to try and destroy the unit inwhich the bond[LAUGHS] , the promise is included. They're going to try to destroy 2％ of thata year.
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯，假如有人告知你，他们将企图炸毁债券办理部分，你购买债券是没有含义的（笑），也包含所谓的许诺。（其实）他们仅仅想要每年削减那2％（的利息）。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞尔：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:And for you to now pay，now receive maybe a half apercent and pay taxes on it.
沃伦·巴菲特:现在你来付出，或许得到0.5％的收益，还要为此交税。
ANDY SERWER:Right.so where do you think these low superrates are going to go， and negative rates？just what are the implications on？
安迪·塞尔：是的。那你以为这些超级低的利率会去向哪里，负利率的去向是哪里？这暗示了什么？
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know.I would say that's the mostimportant question in the world. And I don't know the answer. [LAUGHS]If weknew the answer， it wouldn't be the most important question.
沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道。我以为这是国际上最重要的问题，可我不知道答案。（笑）假如咱们知道答案，它就不是最重要的问题了。
ANDY SERWER:I don't like that.
安迪·塞尔：我不喜爱那样（超低利率）。
WARREN BUFFETT:[LAUGHS] No， but it's true.
沃伦·巴菲特:不，但这是真的（笑）。
ANDY SERWER:Right.So let me ask this way， What hasinvesting in equities changed given the interest rate environment？ It makesequities look super cheap.
安迪·塞尔：好的，那在利率环境下，出资股票有什么改动吗？这使得股票看起来超级廉价。
WARREN BUFFETT:No， it reduces the hurdle rate.
沃伦·巴菲特:不，它下降了最低预期报答率。
WARREN BUFFETT:That's why they like to decrease it， is thatit pushes asset values higher. Because， obviously， if you promise to pay mesomething at 3％ a year， that would have been a terrible instrument for me toown，almost any time in history. But today， if you're good for it， it'sfabulous. [LAUGHS]
沃伦·巴菲特:这便是为什么他们喜爱下降利率，由于这会推高财物价值。由于，很显着——在历史上的任何时分，假如你答应以每年3％的利率付出给我，那对我来说将是一个可怕的东西。但今日，假如你做得好，那才是神话。（笑）
ANDY SERWER:Do negative rates scare you， Warren？
安迪·塞尔：负利率会让你感到惧怕吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:They puzzle me， but they don't scare me.
沃伦·巴菲特:不会让我感到惧怕，仅仅会让我很困惑。
苹果是一家巨大的公司
具有令人难以幻想的商业模式
ANDY SERWER:OK. Fair enough. I want to switch over toApple， one of your biggest holdings.
安迪·塞尔沃：是的，很公正。（接下来）我想（把论题）切换到苹果公司，这是你们最大的持股之一。
WARREN BUFFETT:Mm-hmm.
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯。
ANDY SERWER:Does does the amount of shareholderinterest in this company concern you or Todd or Ted？ In other words， the marketcapitalization basically relative to the S&；；P 500. Is that something youlook at？
安迪·塞尔沃：这家公司（苹果）许多的股东权益是否与你、托德或泰德有关？换句话说，（苹果公司）的市值根本上与标普500指数相关联（《红周刊》记者注：苹果公司市值占标普500指数的权重在5％左右），这是你所垂青的吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you look at everything and relate oneto another. I mean， that's the nature of markets. So you're always trying tothink about A， what's in my circle of competence， and then what makes the mostsense that's within that circle. But the important thing is know where theperimeter of the circle.
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，人们总会把自己看到的作业进行彼此联络。我的意思是，这便是商场的实质。所以你总是想着，什么（A或许其他）在我的才能圈之内，然后（考虑）在（自己的）才能圈里，什么是最有含义的。其实，最重要的你要时刻了解自己才能圈在哪里。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞尔沃：对。
WARREN BUFFETT:I mean， that's way more important than how big thecircle is or the whole bunch of other factors. So I think Apple is within mycircle of competence. I think it's at an incredible business run by a fellowthat's one of the great managers of all time. And he was underrated for awhile， but now he's being seen for what he really is. It's an astounding youcould almost if we had a
沃伦·巴菲特：我是说，这比才能圈终究有多大或任何其他要素都更重要。我以为，苹果公司是在我的才能圈之内的。我以为这是一个由有史以来最巨大的司理之一的家伙、运营的一项难以幻想的事务。他被轻视了一段时刻，仅仅现在他真实的实力正被咱们所发现。真是令人惊奇-假如咱们有——
ANDY SERWER:I got one.
安迪·塞尔沃：我有一个。
WARREN BUFFETT:If we had a card table here well， yeah. Wecould put all their products on one table.
沃伦·巴菲特：假如咱们这儿有一张牌桌——嗯，是的。咱们能够把它们全部的产品放在一张桌子上。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞尔沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Can you imagine that？
沃伦·巴菲特：你能幻想吗？
ANDY SERWER:Yeah.
安迪·塞尔沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:I mean， and I just think of basically theutility of those products to a ecosystem that is demographically terrific， andfinds that instrument useful dozens and dozens of times a day. It's it'salmost indispensable not only to individuals， business， I mean， everything.
沃伦·巴菲特：我的意思是，我仅仅想到这些产品对如此多的人所发生的超卓的生态含义上的效果，并发现（苹果的）设备每天都被运用许屡次。它简直是必不行少的，不只对个人、企业，而是对全部（事物来说，都是如此）。
ANDY SERWER:And you have one of these babies now. Right？
安迪·塞尔沃：你现在有一台这样的（设备）（《红周刊》记者注：iPhone）。对吧？
WARREN BUFFETT:I've got I've got one of them. I don'thave it on me.
沃伦·巴菲特：我有-我有一个。但我没带在身上。
ANDY SERWER:OK.
安迪·塞尔沃：好的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Because I would be afraid it would ring andI wouldn't know what to do with it. [LAUGHS]
沃伦·巴菲特：由于我惧怕它（手机）会响，我不知道该怎样处理。[笑]
ANDY SERWER:It's OK. You can take a call during this. Itwouldn't be have a problem with that. And what sort of apps do you have？ Doyou have any apps loaded？
安迪·塞尔沃：不要紧。你能够在（咱们说话）期间打电话，不会有问题的。你（手机上安装了）什么运用程序？你下载了运用程序吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， they've got a lot of apps on it. Butbut the other day actually， yesterday I was someplace. Normally， I don'tcarry it in town. I carry it out of town. But and somehow I was having alittle trouble just getting to the but this is only me. Any two-year-oldcould do this. But I in fact， I have trouble getting to the part where Iactually phone somebody. [LAUGHS] I use it as a phone.
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，它们（苹果体系里）有许多运用程序在上面。昨日，我在某个当地。一般情况下，我不会在城里带着它（手机），（但）我（会）带着它出城。可是，不知怎样的，在（运用iPhone方面，我）有点困难，但这仅仅（针对）我（而言），（关于）任何两岁的孩子（来说，他们）都能做到（运用iPhone）。但我，现实上，我很难找到给他人拨打电话（那个功用在哪里）。我把它用作电话（《红周刊》记者注：或首要用来接电话）。
ANDY SERWER:Right. So you're not—
安迪·塞尔沃：好的。所以你不是-
WARREN BUFFETT:But I got a lot of apps on it.
沃伦·巴菲特：但我有许多运用程序在手机上。
ANDY SERWER:Have you used any of the apps？
安迪·塞尔沃：你用过这些运用程序吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:No.
沃伦·巴菲特：没有。
ANDY SERWER:No gaming apps or—
安迪·塞尔沃：没有游戏或（其他运用程序吗）-
WARREN BUFFETT:No. People have shown them to me—
沃伦·巴菲特：没有。（但）现已有人给我展现过了（该怎样运用）—
ANDY SERWER:Mm-hmm.
安迪·塞尔沃：嗯。
WARREN BUFFETT:occasionally. They've there's even someapp with with me involved， on this newspaper boy tossing thing. It's the appthat that I revealed a year ago in the movie that I went out to California.And and to Tim Cook very patiently spent hours trying to trying to move meup to the level the average two-year-old. And I didn't quite make it. [LAUGHS]But I supposedly developed an app in this little movie we had. And as I walkedout， I turned to Tim and I said， by the way， what is an app？ [LAUGHS] We had alot of fun. He is a terrific guy.
沃伦·巴菲特：-（仅仅）偶然。它们乃至有一些运用程序和我有关，是一个报童扔东西的运用。这个运用程序，我一年前在电影中泄漏过。（其时）我去了加利福尼亚，并且，蒂姆·库克十分耐心肠花了几个小时，企图把我（运用手机的水平）提升到两岁孩提的均匀水平，但我没能成功。我在这部小电影里开发了一个运用程序。当我走出去的时分，我转向蒂姆，并对他说，“趁便问一下，什么是运用程序？”咱们（在一同交谈得）很高兴。他是个很棒的人。
ANDY SERWER:Right. And—
安迪·塞尔沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:And that is a that is an unbelievableproduct.
沃伦·巴菲特：这是一个令人难以置信的产品。
ANDY SERWER:Just one more about those stocks you know，the so-called FANG stocks？
安迪·塞尔沃：（我还有一些问题）关于那些股票，-你知道，所谓的FANG股票？
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。
ANDY SERWER:And， again， you know， does that approach asort of bubble to you， when you just see—
安迪·塞尔沃：并且，（我还想再问问你），你知道，它们（FANG）对你来说，挨近泡沫（的水平）了吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:No， it's just the opposite. I mean， you'reseeing in this kind of a market， those companies don't need capital. Well，Netflix needs capital. They're new. But， basically， the big the big companiesin market value don't need capital. And that will separate them from evenmore from the rest of the pack.
沃伦·巴菲特：不，正好相反。我是说，清楚明了，那些公司不需求本钱。嗯（当然），Netflix（在外）需求资金。可是，根本上，市值大的公司不需求本钱。这（个特色）将使得它们与其他公司，乃至更多的公司异乎寻常。
I mean， they they have a incredible business model. If you lookat the top 10 market value of companies go back 10 years， 20 years， 30 years.I mean， go back years. It's， you know， it's AT&；；T， the old AT&；；T， and theGeneral Motors， and Standard Oil in New Jersey， as it was called then. You knowthe 500. You worked on it.
我是说，它们有着难以幻想的商业模式。假如你看看这个商场上前十大市值的公司-追溯到10年、20年、30年，我是说，回到曩昔许多年，你知道，它们（具有难以幻想商业模式的公司）是AT&；；T，旧的AT&；；T，通用轿车以及新泽西的规范石油公司（美孚石油），也便是（其时一些人为之）作业的国际500强。
And but those companies needed money. I mean， when AndrewCarnegie was went in the steel business， he built one steel mill， you know，made money that， saved it. Then three or four years later， he built anotherone. And it was it was capital retention and and oil business， the sameway， whatever it was. And now the really incredible companies are the ones thataccount for just the top five would would be well over 10％ of the marketvalue of the company country. They really don't they don't take capitalthat they make it their suppliers may in some cases， and all that. Butbut they are really overwhelmingly， they're capital light. And and that isreally different.
可是那些公司需求钱。我是说，当安德鲁·卡内基从事钢铁生意时，他（需求）树立一家钢铁厂，你知道，（然后他）赚了钱，（再把赚到的钱）存下来。三四年后，（经过留存下来的钱）他又造了一座（钢铁厂）。这便是本钱留存以及石油事务。不论是什么（其他相似事务），它们都是相同的。现在，真实令人难以置信的公司是那些前五名的公司，它们的市值乃至会到达或超越（国家/州）（出产力）的10％。它们并不需求（外在的）本钱（补给）——它们自己就能赚到——（尽管）在某些情况下，它们的供货商或许会（需求）。它们绝大多数都是轻财物，这是它们真实差异（与从前的公司比较）地点。
错失谷歌 现已少数买入亚马逊
不知道FANG现在是否有泡沫
ANDY SERWER:Then the question is， why don't you own Googleand Amazon， those two in particular？ Let's take those two.
安迪·塞尔沃：那么（接下来的）问题是，你为什么不具有谷歌和亚马逊这两家公司呢？让咱们来看看这两家公司吧。
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， that's a pretty damn good question.[LAUGHS] But I don't have a good answer. [LAUGHS] The I definitely shouldhave owned Google. They the guys came to see me before they did a when theywere—
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，这是个十分好的问题。可是我没有好的答案。我的确原本应该具有谷歌。他们从前来访问过我。
ANDY SERWER:Larry and Sergey？
安迪·塞尔沃：拉里和谢尔盖？（《红周刊》记者注：谷歌的两位创始人）
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. Yeah. And they and we were thiswas a long time ago. I mean， this was before they went public. They weretalking to me a little bit about it. And we were using search at GEICO in asignificant way. So I knew the power of search. And I actually used search alot myself， starting with Altavista or something， going way back. And search isincredibly valuable to me. And and it was valuable to GEICO.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，是的。这是很久从前的事了，还在他们成名之前。他们跟我谈了许多（关于Google的事）。咱们在GEICO（《红周刊》记者注：GEICO即政府职工保险公司，美国第四大轿车保险公司，是沃伦·巴菲特的BerkshireHathaway出资公司的合伙人）进行了一次重要的查找，所以我知道查找的力气。实际上，我自己也常常运用查找，从Altavista（《红周刊》记者注：全球最闻名的查找引擎公司之一，一同供给查找引擎后台技术支撑等相关产品）或其他东西开端。查找对我来说是十分有价值的，并且它对GEICO也很有价值。
So I I was capable of understanding of that. On the other hand，I had seen that Google was taking out Altavista to some degree. And I thought，you know， maybe somebody else can take out Google. And maybe if they'd startedearlier， somebody else could have taken out Google. So I was always a stepbehind on that.
所以我能了解。（但）另一方面，我（也）看到谷歌在某种程度上筛选了Altavista。（所以）我想，或许其他人（也）能够干掉谷歌。假如它们早一点开端，或许（就）会干掉谷歌。所以我总是落后一步。
ANDY SERWER:What do you do？ Do you kick yourself？ Whatdoes Warren Buffett do？
安迪·塞尔沃：你在做什么？你给了自己一下吗？这是沃伦·巴菲特做的（决议计划）吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:No， I don't. Because I've made so manymistakes. You know， I'd if I tried to kick myself， my legs would beexhausted.
沃伦·巴菲特：不，不是的。我供认我犯过许多过错。你知道，假如我想踢自己，我的腿会累坏的。
No. It you don't— you don't kick yourself in the investment. Andincidentally， you don't kick yourself when you make a mistake. I mean， it ispart of what you do.
你绝不想在出资上（赏罚）自己的。趁便说一句，即便你犯了过错你也不会赏罚自己。我是意思是，这（犯错）是作业的一部分。
ANDY SERWER:Right. And what about Amazon， same kind ofthing？
安迪·塞尔沃：对。那么，亚马逊这家公司呢？
WARREN BUFFETT:Incredible business.
沃伦·巴菲特：（它也是一笔）难以幻想的生意。
ANDY SERWER:But why why it's not too late to buythese stocks， is it？
安迪·塞尔沃：可是，为什么（你没有买入这家公司）呢？现在买这家公司的股票还不晚，是吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know.
沃伦·巴菲特：我不知道。
ANDY SERWER:But you're not you're not buying themright now.
安迪·塞尔沃：可是，你现在并没有买入它们。
WARREN BUFFETT:No. But I don't buy much.
沃伦·巴菲特：不，（我买了）仅仅买的不多。
ANDY SERWER:Mm-hmm.
安迪·塞尔沃：嗯。
WARREN BUFFETT:Thos those are the kind of businesses Ithink about a lot. Charlie thinks about them a lot. You can't help but do it. Imean， those are incredible business stories.
沃伦·巴菲特：它们是那种我常常会考虑的生意。查理（也）想了许多，你会不由得要这么做。我是说，它的商业模式十分难以幻想。
ANDY SERWER:Right. I mean， so the door is not closed，necessarily.
安迪·塞尔沃：是的，我是说，（你还能够对它们进行出资）这扇门并没有关着。
WARREN BUFFETT:No， no.
沃伦·巴菲特：不，不（我没说它关了出资者的门）。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞尔沃：对。
WARREN BUFFETT:No， not at all.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，彻底没有。
ANDY SERWER:OK.
安迪·塞尔沃：好的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， actually， one of the other fellows nowhas bought a little Amazon. I mean， that that showed up in our 13F.
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，实际上，咱们团队中另一个人买了一点亚马逊的股票，这个咱们在13F财报中现已宣布过了。
ANDY SERWER:Ted or Todd？
安迪·塞尔沃：是泰德仍是托德？
WARREN BUFFETT:One of the two.
沃伦·巴菲特：他们两个中的一个。
ANDY SERWER:One of the two bought some Amazon？
安迪·塞尔沃：他们两个人中有一个买了一些亚马逊？
WARREN BUFFETT:Mm-hmm.
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞尔沃：好的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. That that was in our 13F. Yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，这个之前在咱们的13F陈述中宣布过。
WARREN BUFFETT:Right. There you go. You took the plunge.
安迪·塞尔沃：好的。这样做，你冒险了。
WARREN BUFFETT:Not me.
沃伦·巴菲特：不是我。
ANDY SERWER:Berkshire Berkshire took the plunge.
安迪·塞尔沃：那是伯克希尔冒险了。
WARREN BUFFETT:Berkshire took yeah， Berkshire. They cando anything they want to do. They can't short Berkshire's a few stocks.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，是伯克希尔冒险了。除了不能卖空伯克希尔自己的股票，它们能够做任何他们想做的事。
ANDY SERWER:And then speaking a little bit more aboutAmazon and Jeff Bezos， he owns "The Washington Post."
安迪·塞尔沃：（接下来）谈一点关于亚马逊和杰夫·贝佐斯的事吧，他具有《华盛顿邮报》。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。
ANDY SERWER:They offered it to you， my understanding9 is，when it is for sale. Or I mean， you talk to Don a lot.
安迪·塞尔沃：我的了解是，当它需求出售时，会向你供给（出售计划）。并且，你常常跟唐纳德（特朗普总统）议论此事。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. I talk to Don a lot. Sure.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，当然，我和唐纳德（特朗普总统）谈了许多。
ANDY SERWER:Talk to and why do you regret not buyingit or did you not？
安迪·塞尔沃：谈谈为什么你懊悔没有买它吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:No. I If I buy anything， it's got to befor Berkshire. You know， I I mean， I'm I'm just committed that way. I'mmentally Berkshire comes before me. And and it would have been a mistakefor the for Berkshire to own "The Washington Post."
沃伦·巴菲特：不。假如我买什么东西，那必定是为了伯克希尔的。我是说，我仅仅这样做。我将伯克希尔（的利益）放在我个人之前。假如伯克希尔具有《华盛顿邮报》，这对伯克希尔来说或许会是个过错。
ANDY SERWER:Because of the political stuff？
安迪·塞尔沃：由于政治方面的作业吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。
ANDY SERWER:Yeah.
安迪·塞尔沃：好的。
WARREN BUFFETT:People would think I will guarantee youthat that Jeff Bezos is not telling Fred Hiatt [LAUGHS] or anybody thereMarty Baron but I'll bet I'll bet 80％ of the people， you know， or some hugenumber of people just generally think that that if you own a newspaper， youtell them what to run every day. I mean， it's just it you know， it doesn'thappen very often.
沃伦·巴菲特：人们会以为-我向你确保-杰夫·贝佐斯不会告知弗雷德·希亚特或那里的任何人-马蒂·巴伦-但我敢打赌-我赌80％的人，或许许多人仅仅普遍以为-假如你具有一份报纸，你会告知他们每天应当做些什么作业。我是说，你知道这并不常常发生。
It used to happen with some papers， obviously， and it probablydoes still happen with some papers. But that is not the way it generally works.And that certainly wouldn't be the way it would work at The WashingtonPost."
很明显，它从前发生在一些报纸身上，并且它或许依然发生在一些报纸身上。但这不是它一般应当具有的运转方法。这必定（也）不是《华盛顿邮报》的运转方法。
ANDY SERWER:Yeah. I mean， it sounds like President Trumpmay think that.
安迪·塞尔沃：是的。我是说，听起来特朗普总统或许会这么以为。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. Well， a lot of and， I mean， KayGraham did not tell Ben Bradlee what to write. I can—
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。嗯，有许多-我是说，凯·格雷厄姆没有告知本·布拉德利该写什么。我能够—
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞尔沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:You know， that， I know. I mean， and well，I don't Really know Don and Graham. But， I mean， it they just don't do it.But I will guarantee you that， you know， particular among political figures，but really in the- the man on the street， they 90％ of them probably wouldthink that the that the Graham family was telling telling editors what todo.
沃伦·巴菲特：你知道，我并不彻底了解唐纳德和格雷厄姆。可是，他们并不会这么做。我向你确保，你知道，特别是在政治人物中，实际上，他们中90％的人或许会以为-格雷厄姆宗族-会告知-告知修改该怎样做。
ANDY SERWER:I know you're reluctant to wade intopolitics.
安迪·塞尔沃：我知道你不乐意进入政治。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。
ANDY SERWER:But I want to ask you—
安迪·塞尔沃：但我仍是想问你—
WARREN BUFFETT:I may demonstrate that reluctance here.
沃伦·巴菲特：我能够在这儿证明这种不甘愿。
ANDY SERWER:Right. Good. You will in a second， I'm sure.
安迪·塞尔沃：对。是的。你立刻就会的，我必定。
ANDY SERWER:But， you know， we've talked about thisbefore， Warren， that the country seems to be fairly divided up. And you've saidit's eventually going to get back together. Do you still feel that way？
安迪·塞尔沃：可是，你知道，沃伦，咱们从前议论过这件事，便是国家内部看起来矛盾重重，可你说过它终究会归于满意。你现在还有这种感觉吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:Oh， sure. Sure.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。当然。
ANDY SERWER:What will how will we get back together？
安迪·塞尔沃：咱们会怎样咱们会怎样从头走向满意？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you could have asked me the samequestion in the Vietnam period. And I will tell you， it was it was even moreintense. I mean， I watched I happened to be in New York at the time. And Iwatched that crowd come up to Wall Street. I mean， it was coming up whicheverstreet that is Broad Street. Oh， no. Yeah， may have been Wall and Broad. Butwhatever I mean， have seen—
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，你好像在越战时期问过我相同的问题。我要告知你，那时更激烈。我是说，我其时碰巧在纽约。我看着那群人来到华尔街，不论是哪条街—是啊，或许是—布罗德街。无论怎样，我从前见过—
ANDY SERWER:They were demonstrators.
安迪·塞尔沃：他们是示威游行者。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. And during the Vietnam period， I mean，people were just as inflamed， I would say， on both sides. I mean， there wereit was a it was and it went on a long time. And， you know， caused thepresident not to run again， in the case of Johnson. So this country has beenwe had a civil war. I mean， you know， and so we've we've had we've alwayshad we're a democracy.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。在越战时期，两头都处于胶着（情况），它持续了很长时刻。并且，你知道，形成约翰逊总统时期无法正常运转的情况。
You know， we've got we'll have strong opinions on both sides.And sometimes they they rev up more than others. But I do not regard this assome unique period in history. All everybody I've been reading about uniqueperiods in history ever [LAUGHS] ever since I was old enough to read. So I—
你知道，咱们两边都有激烈的定见。但我不以为这是历史上某种共同的时期。全部的人—咱们每个人，我一直在阅览关于历史上这段共一同期的（书本），对我来说，我现已不行年青再去读这些内容。
ANDY SERWER:Some of the things that—
安迪·塞尔沃：有些作业—
WARREN BUFFETT:My dad listen， I grew up in a householdthat that it was the family's belief and it went beyond my dad and mymother， but went to， you know， all my uncles and all I mean， that basically，that the country had gone socialist， you know， in the '30s.
沃伦·巴菲特：我在一个家庭里长大，（我爸爸是这个家庭的）崇奉，根本上，国家在30年代现已社会主义化—这超出了我爸爸和我妈妈的（认知）规模。
ANDY SERWER:Your father was a Republican congressman.
安迪·塞尔沃：你父亲是共和党议员。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. Yeah， very Republican. We didn't getdessert at dinner until we said something nasty about Roosevelt. I mean[LAUGHS] my sister's [INAUDIBLE]. It was sort of ritualistic. [LAUGHS]
沃伦·巴菲特：是啊，十分（具有）共和党（倾向）。假如咱们不在餐桌上说点关于罗斯福的坏话，咱们是不会在晚餐上得到甜点的。我是说，我的姐妹们...有点典礼感。
伯克希尔仍处于“换挡期”
巴菲特99％的钱来自伯克希尔收益
ANDY SERWER:You said shifting gears here a littlebit， you said you might continue to underperform the S&；；P 500. You mightcontinue to do that.
安迪·塞尔沃：你说过会在这个阶段“换个档”，伯克希尔的体现或许会持续低于标普500指数。你会持续这么做吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I will from time time， for sure.
沃伦·巴菲特：没错。
ANDY SERWER:But what is the appeal， then， to own BerkshireHathaway stock？
安迪·塞尔沃：那么伯克希尔的股票还有什么招引力呢？
ANDY SERWER:Well， I've got 99％ of my money， so[LAUGHS] it appeals to me. But it appeals actually， it appeals to a lot ofpeople who feel very comfortable with the fact that we'll never blow it，basically. And I think that they could feel very certain， relative to almostany company， that， you know， we won't be at the bottom quartile or something ofperformance. But they can feel very they also should feel very we're notgoing to be in the top decile， either.
沃伦·巴菲特：（哈哈）我自己99％的钱都来自伯克希尔的收益，明显这些股票对我而言有十足的招引力。实际上它还招引了许多其他人，这些人以为持有伯克希尔是十分舒畅的挣钱方法，由于他们信赖咱们不会把作业搞砸——咱们的收益体现不会垫底（底部1/4），当然也不会排在前十。
We we run it we run if you're a shareholder at Birkshire，we we are running the business like you've got 100％ of your money in it， andyou're going to keep it in. And it's up to us to take care of it.
比方你是伯克希尔公司的一个股东，你只需求把自己100％的钱投入进来，咱们则担任运营好这个公司，怎样办理你的产业取决于咱们。
ANDY SERWER:You said that my market value my valueis not so high. And it seems like you're trying to really create a BerkshireHathaway that works well， maybe not in perpetuity but for a very long time.
安迪·塞尔沃：你从前说过自己的市值不会十分高，看起来你好像真的在测验发明一个运营杰出的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，尽管或许不是永续的，但最少它会运营很长一段时刻。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。
寻觅能够牺牲于伯克希尔的继任者
未来将要点出资疫苗和教育
ANDY SERWER:And then you also said， we're wellprepared for a succession. It's almost going to be embarrassing， how well.
安迪·塞尔沃：你还说过你们现已为继任做好了充沛的预备，不得不说这令人感到十分为难。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. Well
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，嗯……
ANDY SERWER:What does that what does that mean？
安迪·塞尔沃：这该怎样了解？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， it just means that Berkshire doesn'tneed me. And and we've got somebody that's extremely better than I am inmany， many， many respects to succeed me. And that's and and you want thatcompany， and I want it. I mean， you know， whatever the number may be but it'smany billions that will go for vaccines or whatever it may be， education， fordecades to come. That depends on that.
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，这仅仅意味着伯克希尔不需求我了，咱们有一个在许多方面都比我优异的人来顶替我的方位。或许咱们想要（出资）的公司不同，可是无论怎样，未来伯克希尔会有几十亿或许难以精确计数的资金将用于出资疫苗或许教育职业。
But more important， it's it's really a couple it's at leasta million people or a disproportionate number， have got something close to theirwhole savings in. And so we're their partner. I mean， Berkshire came out of apartnership. Charlie ran a partnership， I ran a partnership. We actually wedo look at the people as partners. And we look at a partner or somebody whotrusts us to make sure that we we don't they don't get killed in theprocess. [LAUGHS]
但更重要的是，至少有百万人把他们简直全部的存款都投入进来，咱们是这些人的协作同伴。伯克希尔是一个合伙制企业，我和查理在运营这家合伙制企业的时分，会把全部（出资）人当作咱们的协作同伴，咱们要确保不让这些信赖咱们的同伴在（运营伯克希尔的）进程中被“消除”。（哈哈）
And they are not if they're shooting for the top 1％ ofperformance or 5％ of performance， they're not going to find it. They might havefound it in our partnership where I work with tiny sums of money， but we can'tdo it. And we don't want you to think we can do it.
假如人们的方针是（收益）体现在前1％或许前5％的基金公司的话，他们是找不到有这种成果的方针的。咱们的协作同伴或许在于咱们协作的进程中也发现了这一点，我用很少的钱作业，但也做不到成果在前1％或许前5％。咱们也不期望你们以为咱们能够做到。
ANDY SERWER:You said a person to succeed me， I thinkjust now. And so is that a person that we know or is it I mean， there arevarious people at the top of Berkshire that you've tapped. I mean， there's Gregand Ajit are going to be on stage this year at the meeting.
安迪·塞尔沃：方才你说有个人会顶替你，所以是一个咱们都知道的人仍是？我的意思是，你在伯克希尔公司的高层中选拔过许多人，或许格雷格或许阿吉特将会在本年的会议（伯克希尔股东大会）上登台。
WARREN BUFFETT:It depends what happens to me and what happensto other people. But—
沃伦·巴菲特：这取决于我和其他人身上发生了什么。可是……
ANDY SERWER:Mm-hmm. It's not Justin Bieber or someoneout there.
安迪·塞尔沃：嗯。不会是贾斯汀·比伯或许其他人。
WARREN BUFFETT:No. It isn't even Elon Musk.[LAUGHTER] Butthe interesting thing is， if you take our top 10 holdings at Berkshire abouta week ago I got $150 billion in them.
沃伦·巴菲特：不会的，也不会是埃隆·马斯克。（哈哈哈）不过风趣的是，假如你看看咱们伯克希尔的前十大股东——大约一周前我就拿到了1500亿美元。
ANDY SERWER:Mm-hmm.
安迪·塞尔沃：嗯。
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know who the successor is to theCEO in any one of those 10. And I've watched a lot of successors come and go inthose holdings. So to think that we wouldn't have somebody able is just crazy，I mean， in our case， that that is just the ultimate responsibility of the boardof directors， is to have the right CEO and be prepared for if something happensto that person.
沃伦·巴菲特：我不知道他们10个中的哪一个会继任CEO，我见过许多继任者在他们中来来去去。因而，以为咱们没有一个能够担任CEO的人选的这种主意是很张狂的。在咱们的体系之下，找到一个适宜的CEO并为其或许发生的作业做好预备是董事会的终究职责。
ANDY SERWER:Right. You said that we possess skilledand devoted top managers for whom running Berkshire is far more than simplyhaving a high paying or prestigious job. How do you know that？
安迪·塞尔沃：没错。你从前说过你们具有经验丰富且忠心耿耿的尖端司理人，对他们来说办理伯克希尔远不止是一份高薪或许有威望的作业。你怎样知道他们是这样想的？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you don't know for sure. But butyou've got to make judgments on that. You make judgments on a marriage. Imean [LAUGHS] and you've got more time to look them over， and thenselecting successor CEOs. But that's the most important decision， though， thatyou make. It isn't what their IQ is. And it it isn't even necessarily thetop， maybe in a given type of managerial skill. I mean， if they're if they'rethe kind that will leave you tomorrow I mean， you really want somebody thatis devoted to Berkshire.
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，你的确无法彻底确保，可是你仍需求作出决议计划，就像为婚姻作出决议计划相同。（哈哈哈）我的意思是，你有满足的时刻来调查他们，并挑选出CEO的提名人。尽管这是你（为伯克希尔）做出的最重要的决议，你也未必要挑选那个智商最高或许办理才能最优异的人——假如他们很或许明日就会脱离伯克希尔的话。由于你真实想要的是一个能够牺牲于伯克希尔的人。
And incidentally， we look for the same thing in oursubsidiaries. In other words， we've got a group of managers. And dozens anddozens and dozens now everyone doesn't feel this way. I mean， but we've got amuch higher percentage that feel that way than， I think， than virtually anybodyelse. But but you can't bat 1,000 in that game.
趁便想说，咱们也在自己的子公司寻觅相同的人。换句话说，咱们有一群司理人，他们并没有牺牲于伯克希尔的主意，可是咱们也有适当份额的司理人是这样考虑的。只不过你不能在一场游戏里击球1000次。
阅览关于巴菲特而言含义严重
注重管帐学这门“出资言语”
ANDY SERWER:Another topic that people are very keen onright now is student debt. And I know that you are really prided yourself onhelping students. Is this something that really concerns you？
安迪·塞尔沃：现在咱们热议的另一个论题是学生债款。我知道你关于协助学生感到十分骄傲，这是你真实关怀的作业吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， it would be a tough considerationfor me if I were going to school， whether I wanted to not only invest about a college，whether I wanted to invest the four years. I didn't want to go to college thatmuch when I went got out of high school. But not only the four years， but ifI had to incur， you know， hundreds of thousands of dollars in student debt， II don't know which decision I would make.
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，是否上学对我来说是一个十分困难的选择，我要考虑清楚我是否想不只出资一所大学以及是否想出资四年。在我高中毕业的时分，我并没有那么渴望去上大学。当我不得不承当数十万美元的学生债款的时分，我不知道我会怎样来选择。
No. It's you know， higher education is really expensive. Andwe've helped out many thousands of students， and the Gates Foundation has donethe same thing， and other foundations that I support. But it's just expensive.It's very expensive.
你要知道，尽管咱们协助了不计其数的学生，盖茨基金会和我支撑的其他基金会也做了相同的作业，但不得不说高等教育真的十分贵重。
ANDY SERWER:Is it still worth it？
安迪·塞尔沃：现在还值得吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:It depends on the individual. It dependson the individual more than the school. I mean， it there's a lot to learn inthose four years. I mean， there's a lot you can learn in those four years. Andwhether you do or not depends on more on the individual. I don't think it Idon't think it makes sense for everybody to go to college. You know， and andI'm not so sure it made sense for me to go to college.
沃伦·巴菲特：这取决于个人而非校园。在上大学的四年间咱们能够学到许多东西，但上大学并非对每个人都是有含义的，乃至我也不确定上大学对我来说是否有含义。
ANDY SERWER:Really？ Come on.
安迪·塞尔沃：真的吗？愿闻其详。
ANDY SERWER:No， I'm not kidding. I mean， I learned alot by reading. And you know， I spent three or four year counting graduateschool， four years， that I could have been doing other things. [LAUGHS] Andthere were a lot of intelligent things to do then. Who knows？ No， I don't thinkit was essential. I mean， I had some wonderful people. I met through it.
沃伦·巴菲特：我没有在恶作剧。我的意思是，我在阅览中学到许多东西。算上研讨生，我花了四年的时刻来上学，但我本能够做许多其他“正确”的作业，所以我不以为这（上学）是必要的。其实经过读书，我也知道了许多优异的人。
Main thing when I went to Columbia， though ，with taking BenGraham's because I already knew what he was going to say. I mean， I read it.I understood you know， I mean， he was a very good writer. But it wasinspirational. It was inspirational more than it was educational.
一个很典型的比方，我是带着本杰明·格雷厄姆的书去哥伦比亚大学的，所以在上课之前我就知道他（格雷厄姆）会说什么了，由于我读过他写的书，我了解（他的理念）。他是个很好的作家，与其说他的著作是具有教育含义的，不如说是鼓舞人心的。
ANDY SERWER:We have a few questions from our audienceat Yahoo! Finance from Twitter. One is， what advice would you give to a younginvestor today？
安迪·塞尔沃：yahoo财经的读者在推特上宣布了一些对您的发问，其间一个问题是，对年青的出资者您有什么主张？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you've got to understand accounting.You've got to that's got to be like a language to you. And so， yeah， you haveto know what you're reading. I mean， and unless you know that language andsome people have more aptitude for that than others. You know， but and that'sone thing I learned by myself. Now， I took courses in it afterwards， forexample. But I learned it myself in a largely.
沃伦 巴菲特：有必要要懂管帐。对你（出资者）来说，管帐就像一门言语，你有必要知道你在读什么。有些人在这方面会比其他人更有天分，但我是自学的。尽管我后来选修了一些课程，但大部分的管帐常识我都是自学的。（注：巴菲特在幼年就开端了送报纸、挨家挨户地推销口香糖和可口可乐等创业活动，11岁时就自学了管帐根底常识）。
So you have to do that. And you have to have the attitude thatyou're buying part of a business， and not that you're buying something thatwiggles around on a chart or that has resistance zones or 200 day movingaverages or that you buy puts it calls on or anything like that. You're buyingpart of a business. And if you buy intelligently into a business， you're goingto make money.
你（出资者）有必要这样做。一同要知道（出资）是在买入一家公司的一部分，而不是在买入某个在图表上摇摆不定的东西，或是有阻力区域的东西，或是有200天移动均匀线的东西，或是买进看跌期权或看涨期权的东西，或诸如此类的东西（注：巴菲特指的是出资者不要依托技术剖析，即经过研讨股票价格在不一同期的走势来做出资）。
And then you have to buy something that， in my view， which youdo if you're buying a business， that you're not going to get a quote on forfive years. That they're going to close a stock exchange tomorrow for fiveyears， and that you'll be happy owning it as a business.
假如你正确地出资了一家企业，你就会挣钱，那么你就有必要买这家公司的股票。在我看来，假如你买了一家5年内都无法报价的公司，例如，明日证券买卖所就要封闭5年，你会很高兴具有这家公司。
If you ownedCoca-Cola， it didn't make any difference in 1920 if it went public. Theimportant thing was what I was doing with customers. And you probably wouldhave been better off if there wasn't any market in it for 30 or 40 years.Because then you wouldn't have gotten tempted to sell it. [LAUGHS] And you justwatch the business and you'd watch it grow and you'd feel happy. So the theproper attitude toward investing is much more important than any technicalskills.
例如，假如你具有可口可乐，它与在1920年上市时没有任何差异。重要的是它怎样对待客户。假如30年或40年没有任何商场体现，你或许会过得更好，由于那样你就不会遭到出售它的引诱。你只需看着这个职业，看着它生长，你就会感到高兴。 因而，正确的出资心情比任何技术技术都重要得多
活跃的心情不只能带来更好的日子体会
还有助于“健康长寿”
ANDY SERWER:Another question from one of our audiencemembers with all your success， what keeps you and Charlie going？
安迪·塞尔沃：另一个观众提的问题，你那么成功，是什么让你和查理走下去的？
WARREN BUFFETT:We have so much fun. I just talked to himthe other day for an hour. And we have fun every time we talk. And we arehaving we are doing what we love to do with people we love every day. And，you know， I've been lucky on health. God knows， you know， how Charlie at 96 ofme at 89 with our habits and everything， it's I don't know what it's a testamentto. I think， actually， being happy in what you're doing makes a huge difference.
沃伦·巴菲特：咱们之间有许多趣味。前几天我刚和他交谈了一个小时，咱们每次说话都很高兴。咱们每天都和自己爱的人做喜爱做的作业。并且咱们都是十分走运的，查理96岁了，我89岁了，这或许与健康的日子习气有关。在我看来，每天做能让自己高兴的作业能够对“健康长寿”起到很大效果。
And you don't want to go around having grudges against people.And， I mean， all these things that cause you to think negatively， whether it'sabout the world or about individuals or about your own bad luck or anything ofthe sort. Just forget it， basically. I think I think that helps.
学会遗忘，能够在很大程度上协助咱们保持高兴的心境。你必定也不想日子在对他人的仇恨中——那就遗忘那些让你发生负面心情的要素，比方让你不高兴的人和事，或许你的坏命运。把它们通通遗忘吧。
ANDY SERWER:How do you clear that stuff out of yourmind？
安迪·塞尔沃：你是怎样把这些负面心情从脑子里铲除出去的？
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know whether you're born to someextent that way. But you certainly see the works， and the you know， I mean，you just take the people you know. And the ones are sour at the world， theworld gets sour on， you know， basically. [LAUGHS] And so it's now it's goingto be tough， you know， in certain situations. And if you've got some majorillness or something， I'm sorry. I mean， that's just you can have terribleluck at life， and that's it's and it can seem very unfair to you.But you'regoing to have you're going to have a better experience in life if ifbasically you you see the positive side of things.
沃伦·巴菲特：我不知道你是否在某种程度上生来如此（爱诉苦），但你必定也见过这样的人或事——那些常常对国际不满足的人，他们的日子也会一团糟。假如你是遭受了身患重疾这样的困难，那么我很抱愧。我的意思是，你在日子中或许会阅历“霉运”，这对你来说好像很不公正。可是假如你能看到事物活跃的一面，你会收成更好的日子体会。
ANDY SERWER:Hm.
安迪·塞尔沃：嗯。
WARREN BUFFETT:You know， when I sold shirts at Penney's and Iwas getting $0.75 an hour， I would rather have been doing something else.[LAUGHS] But since I've been certainly 24, I've always I've never therewasn't anything else I wanted to do. And I had everything I needed， and lifewas wonderful. And and I tell those students that comes you know， you gotto live. So you may take a job at first for some organization that you don'tadmire or work for somebody you don't admire.
沃伦·巴菲特:我在彭尼百货卖衬衫的时分每小时挣0.75美元，我甘愿去做其他作业。（哈哈）可是自从24岁今后，我就再也没有其他想做的作业了。我得到了我需求的全部，日子很夸姣。然后我便告知那些前来的学生——你有必要先保持生计。所以一开端你或许会为你不喜爱的公司作业，或许为你不喜爱的人作业。
But look for somebody you admire. Look for somebody whereyou're looking forward to working with them that day， and doing something thatyou're looking forward to， that you'd do if you didn't need the money. And Charlieand I found that a long time ago.
但要找一个你赏识的人，找一个你乐意和他一同作业的人，做一些你乐意做的作业，即便你不需求钱你也会去做的作业。我和查理在很久从前就发现了这一点（咱们合适与自己喜爱的人一同做乐意做的作业）。
ANDY SERWER:And you're going to turn 90, what， in afew months？
安迪·塞尔沃：几个月之后你就要90岁了？
WARREN BUFFETT:About five months. Yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，五个月之后。
ANDY SERWER:So looking back over these years， what areyou most proud of？
安迪·塞尔沃：回忆这些年，你最值得骄傲的作业是什么？
WARREN BUFFETT:Oh， I would well， I'm I'm certainlywell， I have to give all the credit to my mother. But I'm certainly proud of howmy children have worked out. I mean， that's not easy， in a sense， having a namethat becomes famous or， you know， and thought of as having all kinds of money，although they don't. But all three of them are now in their 60s. In fact， you'relooking at a guy whose youngest child is 61. I mean that's [LAUGHS] andthey've all they've all lived very productive lives. And they and they allget along fine with each other， and they and I've seen a lot of richfamilies. It doesn't always work out that way.
沃伦·巴菲特:我得把这全部（成果）归功于我的母亲，我也的确为我的孩子们的体现感到骄傲。我的意思是，从某种含义上说，“知名”并不是一件简单的事。我的孩子们现在都60多岁了，他们都过着殷实、高兴且有生机的日子。而我见过的其他许多殷实的家庭却并非都是如此。
ANDY SERWER:And another question from the audienceif you were going to start a business today， what kind of company or what industrywould you look to get into？
安迪·塞尔沃：观众的另一个问题是，假如你今日开端创业，你期望进入什么样的公司或职业？
WARREN BUFFETT:I'd I'd do the same thing I've done. Imean， I—
沃伦·巴菲特：我或许会做和现在相同的作业。
ANDY SERWER:Can everyone do what you do， though？ Imean， do you think that？
安迪·塞尔沃：你以为其他人能作出和你相同的成果吗？
WARREN BUFFETT:I'm cut out for for managing money. [LAUGHS]You know， it doesn't mean it makes you know， different people have differentkinds of minds. I I play bridge with people who can remember the hand theyplayed 30 years ago， you know， and watch a basketball game at the same time.But but so there's all kinds of different smarts that people have. And I'vebeen fortunate enough that I mine have been in something that pays off big.And I could be， you know， very good at something else that is just as muchutility to society. But it doesn't it doesn't fit the market system as well.
沃伦·巴菲特：我天然生成果拿手理财。（哈哈哈）我还记住三十年前我也和他人一同打桥牌，一同看篮球赛。人们各有各的聪明才智，而我满足走运，我的作业有丰盛的报答。我也能够做其他本身拿手的作业，也会对社会带来奉献，但那样并不契合商场体系（即经过火工，做最拿手的作业，以完成社会功率的最大化）。
（编者注：本文英文部分来自yahoo财经。另，本文中文部分来自“有道”机器翻译）